The latest industry statistics suggest that the measures of how values of used mining equipment (particularly trucks and shovels) have declined in past cycles will not be a useful metric this time around.
Mining Equipment Market Continues to Decline (May 9, 2016)
The value of shipments declined again in the first quarter of the year by nearly 9%; and across all product lines, measured by units delivered, by a substantial 17% from Q4 2015. The large discrepancy between the two owing to some gains among the largest trucks and shovels. The decline was not uniform by product, market or manufacturer and quarter-to-quarter changes may not be representative of longer-term market shares but the cumulative results are nevertheless discouraging.
With the total now below 500 units, follow-up reporting by participating manufacturers may change the magnitude of the decline by a greater percentage than when the totals were much higher at the peak. But it seems likely that whatever further reporting may occur, the market contracted yet again. Given the severe contraction that has already occurred, the decline in shipments is fewer than 100 units and a small percentage of the peak levels. But the successive quarterly declines over the past four years brings the cumulative reduction in deliveries to more than 75%. By way of comparison, we calculated the comparable contraction during the last cycle that began in the late-1990’s and it was just under 40%. There are some changes in the level of product and geographic coverage between these two time-frames, but there’s little doubt that the current decline is far more severe than the last one.
Source – http://parkerbaymining.com/
Silas Berry – AsiaConsult -asiaconsult.org – Mining equipment deliveries have collapsed – May 2016